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The direst possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by researchers, encompassing a scorching 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea levels. Another scenario predicts a decline of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and power requirements.

Credible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, certain ones are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are considered as unlikely but plausible. The researchers said that these projections plugged a hole in planning that had rendered the UK unprepared for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have outlined are not forecasts, but they are credible," commented Nigel Arnell who directed the analysis. "Britain has been planning in the absence of the tools to test against catastrophic outcomes. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to plan for future conditions they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Range of Severe Conditions Possibilities

A further series of dire projections details the projected severity of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These show that temperatures could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than the norm, while rainfall could be three times typical amounts.

The likelihood of the worst-case outcomes occurring cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be taken to address global warming and how the planet's climate will respond. This analysis was likened to defence planning or stress tests for financial systems.

Critical Possibility Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action fails or if vicious cycles like the Amazon rainforest perishing emit its huge repository of carbon. This would lead to intense and enduring heat domes and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and showing signs of collapse due to global heating. A full shutdown commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water resources would be drastically changed," explained the professor.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, flooding coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already recognized by planners.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be increased by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is sharply cut. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion block sunlight from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Worst

The severe models could be applied to guide the construction of major projects, for example expanded cities, energy plants and flood defences. Understanding these future hazards could also speed the drive to cut carbon pollution.

The analysis created the extreme models using a mix of real-world events, computer simulations and climate physics. The possibilities exclude broader worldwide issues including the devastation of food supplies and geopolitical instability.

The research was initiated as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have cautioned that too little consideration was being given to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the threats for 4C. Past policy documents have been described as being "inadequate" by some observers.

A national response noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of the country's focus, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is essential that the UK is ready for the effects."